India is likely to become the fifth largest economy in 2025 and bag the third spot by 2030, according to a think tank on Saturday. The COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent recession pushed India back this year from bagging the sixth spot. However, it appears that India might manage to overtake the United Kingdom by 2025.
In 2019, India overtook the UK to become the fifth largest economy in the world. However, this year, the country faced one too many hurdles to bag the sixth spot instead.
The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) published their annual report on Saturday i.e., December 26, 2020. According to the report, the pandemic’s impact India knocked-off India from its economic prosperity. Consequently, after overtaking the UK in 2019, UK again managed to surpass India in this year’s forecast. Its position may sustain till 2024 after which India is likely to overthrow it again.
CEBR’s report further suggested that UK managed to surpass India during the pandemic because of the weakness of the rupee. However, forecasts predict that the India economy shall expand by 9 percent in 2021 and by 7 percent in the year 2022. Growth is naturally expected to slow down as India moves forward on its path to become a developed nation. Moreover, its annual GDP growth may also sink to 5.8 percent in the year 2035.
The annual report also showcased India’s growth trajectory. The graph indicates that India is likely to become the third largest economy by 2030. It shall surpass the UK in 2025, Germany in 2027 and Japan in the year 2030. The UK-based think tank commented that India’s economy was losing momentum even after the shock of the COVID-19 crisis. The GDP growth rate lowered by 10 years in 2020 comparing to 4.2 percent in 2019, 6.1 percent in 2018 and 8.3 percent in 2016.
The report also implies that the economy is better placed than most developed countries to roll out vaccines efficiently next year. The 42-year-old vaccination plan targeting 55 million people every year might just work out in the country’s favour. Moreover, the infrastructural opportunities in the agrarian country are sources of major investments, unlocking considerable productivity gains. Hence, the country’s economic growth is widely dependent on its government’s approach towards infrastructure spending.