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India responsible for 80% of slashed global growth forecast

The IMF on Monday scaled down its 2020 global growth forecasts due to sharper-than-expected slowdown in India.

The global projections have been cut by 0.1 per cent for last year to 2.9 per cent and to 3.3 per cent for the current year — the slowest rate since the financial crisis.

At Davos, Chief Economist of International Monetary Fund, Geeta Gopinath told India Today magazine that 80% of the global downward revision is on account of the sharp fall in India’s economic growth rate.

Incidentally, on Monday, the IMF made another dismal forecast: It has lowered the growth estimate for India to 4.8 per cent for financial year 2019-20, citing stress in the non-bank financial sector and weak rural income growth as the major factors for the downward revision.

Other emerging markets, too, saw forecast downgrades, including Chile, which has been hit by social unrest. Again, Mexico will grow just 1.0% in 2020, down from 1.3% forecast in October.

But the impact of the slowdown in these economies is minimal on global projections. India’s growth is, however, projected to improve to 5.8 per cent in 2020 and 6.5 per cent in 2021.

The WEO Update released in Davos, where the World Economic Forum is meeting, also indicated that India may be turning around after what it had said was one of the “negative surprises.

“Despite the cuts for India, it is the second-fastest growing major economy in the world after China this year and the next, and it is expected to overtake China in 2021.

China‘s growth rate projections are 6.1 per cent for 2019, 6 per cent in 2020 and 5.8 per cent in 2021. The growth rates of advanced economies are pathetic in comparison, although given their level of development, the low growth will not have the same impact.

The developed countries are estimated to have grown at 1.7 per cent last year and projected to grow at 1.6 per cent this year and the next.

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